Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) Aug 31, Sept 14, Sept 28 and Jan 31, Feb 14, Feb 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 22 2021 11161 49408 367 105 77 115
March 23 2021 11168 49377 369 105 82 112
March 24 2021 11187 49490 371 105 95 113
March 25 2021 11202 49547 371 105 105 118
March 26 2021 11217 49616 371 105 116 133
March 27 2021 11217 49614 371 105 97 131
March 28 2021 11221 49653 371 105 85 129
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.6 10.6% 9 0.08% 12 0.1%
10-19 0 1.0 14.1% 12 0.09% 21 0.15%
20-29 0 1.1 17.6% 15 0.07% 18 0.09%
30-39 1 1.7 17.6% 15 0.11% 19 0.14%
40-49 0 1.9 15.3% 13 0.12% 20 0.19%
50-59 2 1.0 14.1% 12 0.1% 16 0.13%
60-69 0 0.4 7.1% 6 0.05% 11 0.1%
70+ 1 0.9 3.5% 3 0.03% 12 0.11%
All ages 4 8.6 100% 85 0.08% 129 0.12%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 22 2021 7149 29029 232 93 39 67
March 23 2021 7151 29012 234 93 37 64
March 24 2021 7160 29066 235 93 44 67
March 25 2021 7164 29103 236 93 44 63
March 26 2021 7167 29142 236 93 47 57
March 27 2021 7171 29175 236 93 45 57
March 28 2021 7171 29203 236 93 39 55
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.4 7.7% 3 0.04% 2 0.03%
10-19 0 1.0 23.1% 9 0.11% 15 0.18%
20-29 0 0.3 7.7% 3 0.04% 6 0.08%
30-39 0 0.3 10.3% 4 0.05% 5 0.06%
40-49 0 0.0 7.7% 3 0.04% 6 0.08%
50-59 0 0.7 17.9% 7 0.07% 8 0.08%
60-69 0 0.3 20.5% 8 0.1% 11 0.13%
70+ 0 0.1 5.1% 2 0.03% 2 0.03%
All ages 0 3.1 100% 39 0.06% 55 0.09%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 22 2021 5496 19190 244 76 41 66
March 23 2021 5498 19182 244 76 38 62
March 24 2021 5505 19231 245 76 36 59
March 25 2021 5507 19258 246 76 35 57
March 26 2021 5508 19279 246 76 33 53
March 27 2021 5508 19289 246 76 28 48
March 28 2021 5512 19304 246 76 29 43
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.1 6.9% 2 0.04% 2 0.04%
10-19 3 1.1 27.6% 8 0.15% 11 0.2%
20-29 0 0.1 3.4% 1 0.02% 3 0.07%
30-39 1 0.1 20.7% 6 0.11% 9 0.17%
40-49 0 0.1 3.4% 1 0.02% 1 0.02%
50-59 0 0.0 10.3% 3 0.04% 8 0.12%
60-69 0 0.3 17.2% 5 0.08% 5 0.08%
70+ 0 0.3 10.3% 3 0.05% 4 0.06%
All ages 4 2.3 100% 29 0.06% 43 0.1%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 22 2021 12340 54485 378 80 56 79
March 23 2021 12350 54470 379 80 61 88
March 24 2021 12365 54651 379 80 68 103
March 25 2021 12377 54733 379 80 78 99
March 26 2021 12388 54860 379 80 83 104
March 27 2021 12391 54953 379 80 76 102
March 28 2021 12394 55012 379 80 71 97
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 1.9 22.5% 16 0.14% 15 0.13%
10-19 0 2.1 21.1% 15 0.09% 17 0.1%
20-29 0 0.1 9.9% 7 0.03% 13 0.06%
30-39 -1 1.1 12.7% 9 0.07% 14 0.1%
40-49 3 0.9 14.1% 10 0.07% 15 0.11%
50-59 1 0.7 9.9% 7 0.05% 12 0.08%
60-69 0 0.4 5.6% 4 0.03% 5 0.04%
70+ 0 0.4 4.2% 3 0.02% 6 0.05%
All ages 3 7.7 100% 71 0.06% 97 0.08%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 22 2021 41637 328224 1298 288 430 664
March 23 2021 41654 328214 1300 288 392 652
March 24 2021 41720 328630 1305 288 410 672
March 25 2021 41792 329048 1309 289 460 656
March 26 2021 41852 329254 1310 288 477 645
March 27 2021 41908 329275 1313 288 497 646
March 28 2021 41955 329628 1313 288 476 645
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 4.9 8.6% 41 0.07% 49 0.08%
10-19 7 8.7 17.4% 83 0.12% 118 0.17%
20-29 15 12.3 23.9% 114 0.11% 158 0.15%
30-39 12 11.1 19.5% 93 0.12% 113 0.15%
40-49 2 5.3 10.3% 49 0.07% 74 0.11%
50-59 5 4.0 11.3% 54 0.08% 78 0.12%
60-69 1 3.0 6.7% 32 0.06% 42 0.08%
70+ 1 0.7 2.1% 10 0.02% 13 0.03%
All ages 47 50.0 100% 476 0.09% 645 0.12%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 22 2021 572770 2688686 27126 6576 3868 5899
March 23 2021 573123 2688182 27182 6587 3759 5789
March 24 2021 573899 2693696 27254 6597 4261 6049
March 25 2021 574436 2698173 27314 6599 4504 6084
March 26 2021 574870 2702564 27353 6597 4458 5968
March 27 2021 575320 2705856 27403 6598 4590 5956
March 28 2021 575748 2709348 27433 6598 4528 6110
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 27 38.1 7.9% 356 0.06% 496 0.08%
10-19 47 80.0 16.7% 755 0.1% 1003 0.13%
20-29 72 71.6 15.3% 691 0.09% 931 0.12%
30-39 95 87.3 18% 817 0.11% 1064 0.14%
40-49 57 69.1 14.5% 657 0.09% 872 0.12%
50-59 69 67.0 14.7% 666 0.08% 924 0.11%
60-69 41 45.0 9.4% 424 0.06% 586 0.08%
70+ 20 15.6 3.6% 162 0.03% 234 0.04%
All ages 428 473.7 100% 4528 0.08% 6110 0.1%

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
12.3 15.4 8.6 8.6 6.6 18%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
8.5 3.1 4.7 10.7%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
9.5 2.3 4.9 11.5%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
8.2 10.3 6.1 7.7 7.6 8.8%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
11.8 16.6 15.2 50 51.9 16.7%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
10.5 13.3 12.3 473.7 411.4 12.5%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.66 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-04-18 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5787"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red