Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 22 2021 | 11161 | 49408 | 367 | 105 | 77 | 115 |
| March 23 2021 | 11168 | 49377 | 369 | 105 | 82 | 112 |
| March 24 2021 | 11187 | 49490 | 371 | 105 | 95 | 113 |
| March 25 2021 | 11202 | 49547 | 371 | 105 | 105 | 118 |
| March 26 2021 | 11217 | 49616 | 371 | 105 | 116 | 133 |
| March 27 2021 | 11217 | 49614 | 371 | 105 | 97 | 131 |
| March 28 2021 | 11221 | 49653 | 371 | 105 | 85 | 129 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.6 | 10.6% | 9 | 0.08% | 12 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.0 | 14.1% | 12 | 0.09% | 21 | 0.15% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 1.1 | 17.6% | 15 | 0.07% | 18 | 0.09% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 1.7 | 17.6% | 15 | 0.11% | 19 | 0.14% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.9 | 15.3% | 13 | 0.12% | 20 | 0.19% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 1.0 | 14.1% | 12 | 0.1% | 16 | 0.13% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.4 | 7.1% | 6 | 0.05% | 11 | 0.1% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.9 | 3.5% | 3 | 0.03% | 12 | 0.11% |
| All ages | 4 | 8.6 | 100% | 85 | 0.08% | 129 | 0.12% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 22 2021 | 7149 | 29029 | 232 | 93 | 39 | 67 |
| March 23 2021 | 7151 | 29012 | 234 | 93 | 37 | 64 |
| March 24 2021 | 7160 | 29066 | 235 | 93 | 44 | 67 |
| March 25 2021 | 7164 | 29103 | 236 | 93 | 44 | 63 |
| March 26 2021 | 7167 | 29142 | 236 | 93 | 47 | 57 |
| March 27 2021 | 7171 | 29175 | 236 | 93 | 45 | 57 |
| March 28 2021 | 7171 | 29203 | 236 | 93 | 39 | 55 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 7.7% | 3 | 0.04% | 2 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9 | 0.11% | 15 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.3 | 7.7% | 3 | 0.04% | 6 | 0.08% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.3 | 10.3% | 4 | 0.05% | 5 | 0.06% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.0 | 7.7% | 3 | 0.04% | 6 | 0.08% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.7 | 17.9% | 7 | 0.07% | 8 | 0.08% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.3 | 20.5% | 8 | 0.1% | 11 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.1 | 5.1% | 2 | 0.03% | 2 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 0 | 3.1 | 100% | 39 | 0.06% | 55 | 0.09% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 22 2021 | 5496 | 19190 | 244 | 76 | 41 | 66 |
| March 23 2021 | 5498 | 19182 | 244 | 76 | 38 | 62 |
| March 24 2021 | 5505 | 19231 | 245 | 76 | 36 | 59 |
| March 25 2021 | 5507 | 19258 | 246 | 76 | 35 | 57 |
| March 26 2021 | 5508 | 19279 | 246 | 76 | 33 | 53 |
| March 27 2021 | 5508 | 19289 | 246 | 76 | 28 | 48 |
| March 28 2021 | 5512 | 19304 | 246 | 76 | 29 | 43 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.1 | 6.9% | 2 | 0.04% | 2 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 1.1 | 27.6% | 8 | 0.15% | 11 | 0.2% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.1 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.02% | 3 | 0.07% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 0.1 | 20.7% | 6 | 0.11% | 9 | 0.17% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.1 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.02% | 1 | 0.02% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.0 | 10.3% | 3 | 0.04% | 8 | 0.12% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.3 | 17.2% | 5 | 0.08% | 5 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.3 | 10.3% | 3 | 0.05% | 4 | 0.06% |
| All ages | 4 | 2.3 | 100% | 29 | 0.06% | 43 | 0.1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 22 2021 | 12340 | 54485 | 378 | 80 | 56 | 79 |
| March 23 2021 | 12350 | 54470 | 379 | 80 | 61 | 88 |
| March 24 2021 | 12365 | 54651 | 379 | 80 | 68 | 103 |
| March 25 2021 | 12377 | 54733 | 379 | 80 | 78 | 99 |
| March 26 2021 | 12388 | 54860 | 379 | 80 | 83 | 104 |
| March 27 2021 | 12391 | 54953 | 379 | 80 | 76 | 102 |
| March 28 2021 | 12394 | 55012 | 379 | 80 | 71 | 97 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.9 | 22.5% | 16 | 0.14% | 15 | 0.13% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 2.1 | 21.1% | 15 | 0.09% | 17 | 0.1% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.1 | 9.9% | 7 | 0.03% | 13 | 0.06% |
| 30-39 | -1 | 1.1 | 12.7% | 9 | 0.07% | 14 | 0.1% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 0.9 | 14.1% | 10 | 0.07% | 15 | 0.11% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.7 | 9.9% | 7 | 0.05% | 12 | 0.08% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.4 | 5.6% | 4 | 0.03% | 5 | 0.04% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.4 | 4.2% | 3 | 0.02% | 6 | 0.05% |
| All ages | 3 | 7.7 | 100% | 71 | 0.06% | 97 | 0.08% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 22 2021 | 41637 | 328224 | 1298 | 288 | 430 | 664 |
| March 23 2021 | 41654 | 328214 | 1300 | 288 | 392 | 652 |
| March 24 2021 | 41720 | 328630 | 1305 | 288 | 410 | 672 |
| March 25 2021 | 41792 | 329048 | 1309 | 289 | 460 | 656 |
| March 26 2021 | 41852 | 329254 | 1310 | 288 | 477 | 645 |
| March 27 2021 | 41908 | 329275 | 1313 | 288 | 497 | 646 |
| March 28 2021 | 41955 | 329628 | 1313 | 288 | 476 | 645 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 4.9 | 8.6% | 41 | 0.07% | 49 | 0.08% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 8.7 | 17.4% | 83 | 0.12% | 118 | 0.17% |
| 20-29 | 15 | 12.3 | 23.9% | 114 | 0.11% | 158 | 0.15% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 11.1 | 19.5% | 93 | 0.12% | 113 | 0.15% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 5.3 | 10.3% | 49 | 0.07% | 74 | 0.11% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 4.0 | 11.3% | 54 | 0.08% | 78 | 0.12% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 3.0 | 6.7% | 32 | 0.06% | 42 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.7 | 2.1% | 10 | 0.02% | 13 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 47 | 50.0 | 100% | 476 | 0.09% | 645 | 0.12% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 22 2021 | 572770 | 2688686 | 27126 | 6576 | 3868 | 5899 |
| March 23 2021 | 573123 | 2688182 | 27182 | 6587 | 3759 | 5789 |
| March 24 2021 | 573899 | 2693696 | 27254 | 6597 | 4261 | 6049 |
| March 25 2021 | 574436 | 2698173 | 27314 | 6599 | 4504 | 6084 |
| March 26 2021 | 574870 | 2702564 | 27353 | 6597 | 4458 | 5968 |
| March 27 2021 | 575320 | 2705856 | 27403 | 6598 | 4590 | 5956 |
| March 28 2021 | 575748 | 2709348 | 27433 | 6598 | 4528 | 6110 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 27 | 38.1 | 7.9% | 356 | 0.06% | 496 | 0.08% |
| 10-19 | 47 | 80.0 | 16.7% | 755 | 0.1% | 1003 | 0.13% |
| 20-29 | 72 | 71.6 | 15.3% | 691 | 0.09% | 931 | 0.12% |
| 30-39 | 95 | 87.3 | 18% | 817 | 0.11% | 1064 | 0.14% |
| 40-49 | 57 | 69.1 | 14.5% | 657 | 0.09% | 872 | 0.12% |
| 50-59 | 69 | 67.0 | 14.7% | 666 | 0.08% | 924 | 0.11% |
| 60-69 | 41 | 45.0 | 9.4% | 424 | 0.06% | 586 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 20 | 15.6 | 3.6% | 162 | 0.03% | 234 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 428 | 473.7 | 100% | 4528 | 0.08% | 6110 | 0.1% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.3 | 15.4 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 18% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 10.7% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | 2.3 | 4.9 | 11.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 8.8% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.8 | 16.6 | 15.2 | 50 | 51.9 | 16.7% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 13.3 | 12.3 | 473.7 | 411.4 | 12.5% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.66 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-04-18 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5787"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges